Situation: running WoW under WINE-1.3.37 on Ubuntu Linux 10.04 LTS (64-bit).
My problem: I've been stuck on "Connecting to patch server" for over 24 hours now.

The recommended solution of simply waiting it out hasn't helped - I've let it run for 5-6 hours yesterday, and the Launcher just sat there, not responding, not downloading anything (checked with a packet sniffer), and neither showing any hard disk activity nor CPU usage.

The text "Connecting to patch server" made me try to verify connectivity to the patch server listed in realmlist.wtf, by doing "telnet enGB.patch.battle.net 1119". That DID give me an HTTP response, so the Launcher *should* be able to connect to that server, right?

Anyway, basically, my patching attempts went like this:

• Launch WoW.exe, forgetting it's patch day
• Get the Launcher in my face instead ("oh right, it's patch day, I forgot")
• Launcher window becomes grey after about 5 seconds, still showing "Connecting to patch server"
• Get bored after a while, kill launcher, restart Launcher (I started Launcher.exe this time. not WoW.exe)
• Leave Launcher running for 5+ hours. Nothing happens.
• Kill Launcher, run repair.exe, reports there's nothing wrong with the installation
• Start Launcher.exe again, same problem.
• *endless reboots and Launcher restarts, nothing helps*

* The Launcher is stuck on "Connecting to patch server"

Although it may appear to be stuck, the Launcher is actually downloading required large files. We recommend players to be patient and avoid closing the Launcher as it downloads the data. Halting the process may result in corrupted data and a large additional download.

As I indicated above, this solution didn't work for me. There was no progress even after 5-6 hours.

Nor have other solutions helped. I've double-checked all relevant fie permissions (all files are writeable etc.), ran Repair.exe (which just said the installation was perfectly in order), ensured that no firewall blocked any connections, killed any program that might have any files open in the World of Warcraft directory, etc. etc. etc., but nothing has helped.

Sadly I don't have access to a Windows machine here, or I'd install the patch on that machine and copy the whole installation to my Linux box...

I've googled myself silly and gone through all the stickies, but I can't seems to solve this problem. Please help?

System information:
Intel Core i7 920 CPU, 6 GB RAM, GeForce GTX 280 PCI express graphics card w/ 1 GB on-card memory, all components below 50 degrees Celcius at all times
Ubuntu Linux release 10.04 Long Term Support
Linux kernel 2.6.32-38-generic
NVidia driver version: 195.36.24
Gnome 2.30.2
WINE 1.3.37
EXT3 file system with over 600 GB free space

Launcher log excerpt for the last two Launcher runs (previous runs look the same):

#-----------------------------------------------------------
# System started at 2012-02-02 13:10:10.5032
# system: pandora
#-----------------------------------------------------------
13:10:10.5036 Launcher version 4.2.1.2617
13:10:10.5058 World of Warcraft version 4.3.0.15050
13:10:10.5373 Launcher failed to fix registry permissions for key 'World of Warcraft'.
13:10:10.5783 Found incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft ('C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.patch.exe').
13:10:10.5786 Fixed incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft (now 'C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.exe').
13:10:10.8049 Preparing for a tools patch.

#-----------------------------------------------------------
# System started at 2012-02-02 13:10:11.0674
# system: pandora
#-----------------------------------------------------------
13:10:11.0678 Launcher version 4.2.1.2617
13:10:11.0705 World of Warcraft version 4.3.0.15050
13:10:11.0939 Launcher failed to fix registry permissions for key 'World of Warcraft'.
13:10:11.1288 Found incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft ('C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.exe').
13:10:11.1289 Fixed incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft (now 'C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.patch.exe').

#-----------------------------------------------------------
# System started at 2012-02-02 13:38:24.5533
# system: pandora
#-----------------------------------------------------------
13:38:24.5963 Launcher version 4.2.1.2617
13:38:24.6722 World of Warcraft version 4.3.0.15050
13:38:24.9453 Launcher failed to fix registry permissions for key 'World of Warcraft'.
13:38:25.0689 Found incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft ('C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.patch.exe').
13:38:25.0689 Fixed incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft (now 'C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.exe').
13:38:26.9112 Preparing for a tools patch.

#-----------------------------------------------------------
# System started at 2012-02-02 13:38:27.3585
# system: pandora
#-----------------------------------------------------------
13:38:27.3588 Launcher version 4.2.1.2617
13:38:27.3611 World of Warcraft version 4.3.0.15050
13:38:27.3841 Launcher failed to fix registry permissions for key 'World of Warcraft'.
13:38:27.4232 Found incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft ('C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.exe').
13:38:27.4233 Fixed incorrect GamePath registry key entry for World of Warcraft (now 'C:\Program Files\World of Warcraft\Launcher.patch.exe').

EDIT: Removed accidentally pasted text from Launcher log.
EDIT 2: Added enGB.patch.battle.net connectivity verification.